The college football world was wishing for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, supplying lots of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, consisting of three fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not appear to believe so. A minimum of in two cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads preferring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a specifically popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text message to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns extends to the futures market too. Bear in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the greatest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most love from sharp bettors. The Athletic spoke to numerous bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely highly regarded player."
Although highly regarded money has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public wagerers are stacking on Texas.
"We would enjoy to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn't the only video game in town. We talked with multiple bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has actually approached slightly to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at the majority of sportsbooks. The overall dollars bet differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in terms of overall at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I wouldn't be amazed if this line sneaks up a bit more before kickoff, however I currently welcome any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd possibility it desired. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These groups satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power scores, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power ranking in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before highly regarded money pushed it to the present line of -2.5. A a little higher bulk of wagers at several sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the cash has can be found in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some highly regarded money at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number right now. The total has actually gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the greatest move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over so far.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp bettors, told The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and right away our Ohio wagerers thought we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had seen substantial buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
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The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The favorite flipped in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line flip? Basically, the sports betting action.
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Despite the fact that Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating towards the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Coming in On Texas'
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