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The college football world was hoping for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matches underwhelmed, offering lots of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 against the spread, including three fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public do not appear to think so. At least in two cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a particularly popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, composed in a text to The Athletic. "We need Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The enthusiasm for the Longhorns encompasses the futures market too. Bear in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the biggest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most enjoy from sharp wagerers. The Athletic talked with a number of bookies who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.
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John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely reputable player."
Although reputable money has been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public gamblers are stacking on Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We talked with numerous bookmakers to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matches. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at the majority of sportsbooks and has actually crept up somewhat to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at most sportsbooks. The total dollars bet varies by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the money at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in terms of overall tickets at BetMGM books.
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"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, informed The Athletic. "I would not be surprised if this line approaches a bit more before kickoff, however I currently welcome any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it desired. Are the Buckeyes all set for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this video game before highly regarded cash pressed it to the present line of -2.5. A somewhat higher majority of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has actually come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some reputable money at -1.5, quickly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable stated. "It's decent two-way action at that number today. The total has increased 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has been the biggest move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.
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Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp bettors, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point preferred, and immediately our Ohio gamblers thought we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has actually been increased to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had seen considerable buyback at the current line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line flip? Basically, the sports betting action.
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Although Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, bettors are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars wagered), and it has been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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